The data shared are spatially explicit projections of wildfire burn probability across Canada’s forested ecozones under multiple future climate scenarios at a 30-m spatial resolution. It is developed within the framework of Canada’s National Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring System (NTEMS). Four future climate scenarios were used to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of burn probability in the 21st century based on climate, vegetation, and topographic conditions ( Mulverhill et al. 2024). Projected burn probability is provided for four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) and four future time periods, including 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100, along with a baseline period representing average climate conditions and burn probability between 1991 and 2020. Outputs represent the probability that the conditions (climate, vegetation, topography) of a given pixel resemble those of historically burned areas. All non-climate variables were held static; therefore, projections represent burn probability under future climate scenarios given contemporary (2020) forest conditions. When using this dataset, please cite Mulverhill et al. (2025), as below.Mulverhill, C., Coops, N. C., Wulder, M. A., Hermosilla, T., White, J. C., & Bater, C. W. (2025). Projected Future Changes in Burn Probability in Canada’s Forests and Communities Under Different Climate Change Scenarios. Canadian Journal of Remote Sensing, 51(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/07038992.2025.2560347(Mulverhill et al. 2025).For a detailed description of the source data and methods applied to the baseline period to enable the Mulverhill et al. (2025) projections, see:Mulverhill, C., Coops, N.C., Wulder, M.A., White, J.C., Hermosilla, T., and Bater, C.W. 2024. “Multidecadal mapping of status and trends in annual burn probability over Canada’s forested ecosystems.” ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 209 pp. 279–295. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2024.02.006(Mulverhill et al. 2024).

This layer is the current fire year burn severity classification for large fires (greater than 100 ha). Burn severity mapping is conducted using best available pre- and post-fire satellite multispectral imagery acquired by the MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) aboard the Sentinel-2 satellite or the Operational Land Imager (OLI) sensor aboard the Landsat-8 and 9 satellites. Every attempt is made to use cloud, smoke, shadow and snow-free imagery that was acquired prior to September 30th. However, in late fire seasons imagery acquired after September 30th may be used. This layer is considered an interim product for the 1-year-later burn severity dataset (WHSE_FOREST_VEGETATION.VEG_BURN_SEVERITY_SP). Mapping conducted during the following growing season benefits from greater post-fire image availability and is expected to be more representative of tree mortality. #### Methodology: • Select suitable pre- and post-fire imagery or create a cloud/snow/smoke-free composite from multiple images scenes • Calculate normalized burn severity ratio (NBR) for pre- and post-fire images • Calculate difference NBR (dNBR) where dNBR = pre NBR – post NBR • Apply a scaling equation (dNBR_scaled = dNBR*1000 + 275)/5) • Apply BARC thresholds (76, 110, 187) to create a 4-class image (unburned, low severity, medium severity, and high severity) • Mask out water bodies using a satellite-derived water layer • Apply region-based filters to reduce noise • Confirm burn severity analysis results through visual quality control • Produce a vector dataset and apply Euclidian distance smoothing

[ARCHIVED] The requirement for non-commercial burn permits has been discontinued.

Wildfire Year/dNBR/Mask 1985-2015Wildfire change magnitude 85-15. Spectral change magnitude for wildfires that occurred from 1985 and 2015. It is developed within the framework of Canada’s National Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring System (NTEMS). The wildfire change magnitude included in this product is expressed via differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), computed as the variation between the spectral values before and after the change event. This dataset is composed of three layers: (1) binary wildfire mask, (2) year of greatest wildfire disturbance, and (3) differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) transformed for data storage efficiency to the range 0-200. The actual dNBR value is derived as follows: dNBR = value / 100. Higher dNBR values are related to higher burn severity. The information outcomes represent 30 years of wildfires in Canada's forests, derived from a single, consistent spatially-explicit data source in a fully automated manner. Time series of Landsat data with 30-m spatial resolution were used to characterize national trends in stand replacing forest disturbances caused by wildfire for the period 1985-2015 for Canada's 650 million hectare forested ecosystems.When using this data, please cite as: Hermosilla, T., M.A. Wulder, J.C. White, N.C. Coops, G.W. Hobart, L.B. Campbell, 2016. Mass data processing of time series Landsat imagery: pixels to data products for forest monitoring. International Journal of Digital Earth 9(11), 1035-1054. (Hermosilla et al. 2016).See references below for an overview on the data processing, metric calculation, change attribution and time series change detection methods applied, as well as information on independent accuracy assessment of the data.Hermosilla, T., Wulder, M. A., White, J. C., Coops, N.C., Hobart, G.W., 2015. An integrated Landsat time series protocol for change detection and generation of annual gap-free surface reflectance composites. Remote Sensing of Environment 158, 220-234. (Hermosilla et al. 2015a).Hermosilla, T., Wulder, M.A., White, J.C., Coops, N.C., Hobart, G.W., 2015. Regional detection, characterization, and attribution of annual forest change from 1984 to 2012 using Landsat-derived time-series metrics. Remote Sensing of Environment 170, 121-132. (Hermosilla et al. 2015b).Geographic extent: Canada's forested ecosystems (~ 650 Mha)Time period: 1985–2011

Wildfire change magnitude 1985-2022. Spectral change magnitude for wildfires that occurred from 1985 to 2022. It is developed within the framework of Canada’s National Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring System (NTEMS). The wildfire change magnitude included in this product is expressed via differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR), computed as the variation between the spectral values before and after a given change event. Higher dNBR values are related to higher burn severity. Time series of Landsat data with 30-m spatial resolution were used to characterize national trends in stand replacing forest disturbances caused by wildfire for the period 1985-2022 for Canada's 650 million-hectare forested ecosystems.When using this data, please cite as: Hermosilla, T., M.A. Wulder, J.C. White, N.C. Coops, G.W. Hobart, L.B. Campbell, 2016. Mass data processing of time series Landsat imagery: pixels to data products for forest monitoring. International Journal of Digital Earth 9(11), 1035-1054. (Hermosilla et al. 2016).See references below for an overview on the data processing, metric calculation, change attribution and time series change detection methods applied, as well as information on independent accuracy assessment of the data.Hermosilla, T., Wulder, M. A., White, J. C., Coops, N.C., Hobart, G.W., 2015. An integrated Landsat time series protocol for change detection and generation of annual gap-free surface reflectance composites. Remote Sensing of Environment 158, 220-234. (Hermosilla et al. 2015a).Hermosilla, T., Wulder, M.A., White, J.C., Coops, N.C., Hobart, G.W., 2015. Regional detection, characterization, and attribution of annual forest change from 1984 to 2012 using Landsat-derived time-series metrics. Remote Sensing of Environment 170, 121-132. (Hermosilla et al. 2015b).

Fire weather refers to weather conditions that are conducive to fire. These conditions determine the fire season, which is the period(s) of the year during which fires are likely to start, spread and do sufficient damage to warrant organized fire suppression.The length of fire season is the difference between the start- and end-of-fire-season dates. These are defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI; http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/) start-up and end dates. Start-up occurs when the station has been snow-free for 3 consecutive days, with noon temperatures of at least 12°C. For stations that do not report significant snow cover during the winter (i.e., less than 10 cm or snow-free for 75% of the days in January and February), start-up occurs when the mean daily temperature has been 6°C or higher for 3 consecutive days. The fire season ends with the onset of winter, generally following 7 consecutive days of snow cover. If there are no snow data, shutdown occurs following 7 consecutive days with noon temperatures lower than or equal to 5°C.Historical climate conditions were derived from the 1981–2010 Canadian Climate Normals. Future projections were computed using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.Provided layer: difference in projected fire season length for the medium-term (2041-2070) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases) compared to reference period across Canada.

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem.Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by large fires (greater than 200 hectares (ha)). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications.Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.Provided layer: projected annual area burned by large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the long-term (2071-2100) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases).Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.

Fire weather refers to weather conditions that are conducive to fire. These conditions determine the fire season, which is the period(s) of the year during which fires are likely to start, spread and do sufficient damage to warrant organized fire suppression.The length of fire season is the difference between the start- and end-of-fire-season dates. These are defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI; http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/) start-up and end dates. Start-up occurs when the station has been snow-free for 3 consecutive days, with noon temperatures of at least 12°C. For stations that do not report significant snow cover during the winter (i.e., less than 10 cm or snow-free for 75% of the days in January and February), start-up occurs when the mean daily temperature has been 6°C or higher for 3 consecutive days. The fire season ends with the onset of winter, generally following 7 consecutive days of snow cover. If there are no snow data, shutdown occurs following 7 consecutive days with noon temperatures lower than or equal to 5°C.Historical climate conditions were derived from the 1981–2010 Canadian Climate Normals. Future projections were computed using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.Provided layer: difference in projected fire season length for the long-term (2071-2100) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases) compared to reference period across Canada.

Fire weather refers to weather conditions that are conducive to fire. These conditions determine the fire season, which is the period(s) of the year during which fires are likely to start, spread and do sufficient damage to warrant organized fire suppression.The length of fire season is the difference between the start- and end-of-fire-season dates. These are defined by the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI; http://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/) start-up and end dates. Start-up occurs when the station has been snow-free for 3 consecutive days, with noon temperatures of at least 12°C. For stations that do not report significant snow cover during the winter (i.e., less than 10 cm or snow-free for 75% of the days in January and February), start-up occurs when the mean daily temperature has been 6°C or higher for 3 consecutive days. The fire season ends with the onset of winter, generally following 7 consecutive days of snow cover. If there are no snow data, shutdown occurs following 7 consecutive days with noon temperatures lower than or equal to 5°C.Historical climate conditions were derived from the 1981–2010 Canadian Climate Normals. Future projections were computed using two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.Provided layer: difference in projected fire season length for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases) compared to reference period across Canada.

The fire regime describes the patterns of fire seasonality, frequency, size, spatial continuity, intensity, type (e.g., crown or surface fire) and severity in a particular area or ecosystem.Annual area burned is the average surface area burned annually in Canada by large fires (greater than 200 hectares (ha)). Changes in annual area burned were estimated using Homogeneous Fire Regime (HFR) zones. These zones represent areas where the fire regime is similar over a broad spatial scale (Boulanger et al. 2014). Such zonation is useful in identifying areas with unusual fire regimes that would have been overlooked if fires had been aggregated according to administrative and/or ecological classifications.Fire data comes from the Canadian National Fire Database covering 1959–1999 (for HFR zones building) and 1959-1995 (for model building). Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) modeling was used to relate monthly fire regime attributes with monthly climatic/fire-weather in each HFR zone. Future climatic data were simulated using the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and downscaled at a 10 Km resolution using ANUSPLIN for two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). RCPs are different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for its fifth Assessment Report. RCP 2.6 (referred to as rapid emissions reductions) assumes that greenhouse gas concentrations peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining thereafter. In the RCP 8.5 scenario (referred to as continued emissions increases) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise throughout the 21st century.Provided layer: projected annual area burned by large fires (>200 ha) across Canada for the short-term (2011-2040) under the RCP 8.5 (continued emissions increases).Reference: Boulanger, Y., Gauthier, S., et al. 2014. A refinement of models projecting future Canadian fire regimes using homogeneous fire regime zones. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 44, 365–376.